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Electricity shortage: not only the subject matter is more economic downlink signal
Release date:2012-6-8 15:36:30News source :
      Nearly two months, several provinces blackouts phenomenon. "Shortage", following the impact of investors'' attention again after 2004. According to the analysis of the relevant experts, coal prices and power grid construction lag is exacerbated by the electricity shortage dilemma two culprit. 14, the latest data disclosed by the National Energy Board is further evidence of the existence of electricity shortage. The data show that in April of the whole society to use electricity consumption 3768 billion kwh, up 11.2 percent. This growth rate of electricity consumption growth rate as compared to March decreased by 2.2%. Obviously, as the traditional off-season of electricity, electricity consumption growth rate in April remained strong.
    Capital markets, rising electricity prices brought about by the "shortage" is expected to speculation the opportunity to bring the power plate. Such as Yunengkonggu, Anhui electricity, Xichang Electric Power stocks continued to rise. Since May of Kaidi Electric Power rose up to 32.62%.
    At the same time, due to regional power shortages lead to a passive chemical, steel, cement and other industries to cut production, and cause prices to rise, related stocks also have a strong performance. This is most evident in the chemical industry. Electricity costs accounted for nearly 70 percent of the cost of calcium carbide, the power supply is bound to promote the calcium carbide prices continued to rise. Rising costs will drive the vinyl (PVC) recovery in prices, which will detonate the prices of the chemicals industry tide.
    However, some market participants to sing a lot of electricity shortage benefit from the concept of the same time, many analysts questioned. Societe Generale Securities R & D Center analysts believe that the electricity shortage will exacerbate the decline in economic growth expectations, which leads to the expected deterioration of the stage of inflation. They believe that the electricity shortage in fact lag in the impact of structural reform and price reform, the duration will be very high probability-than-expected. Now it seems, there are "soft power shortage, namely power generation enterprises lose money rather than fat, structural" hard power shortage, Central China, East China thermal power investment lags behind generating capacity is limited by the worsening trend.
    Obviously, the further continuation of the electricity shortage in the summer, would severely hinder the industrial production. From four industrial output grew 13.4 percent lower than expected power cuts impact was reflected. Output of crude steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, fertilizer high-energy-consuming industries, seasonally adjusted chain trend down. It is worth mentioning that the Societe Generale Securities R & D center, under the electricity shortage, power cuts will give priority to protecting people''s livelihood, to protect the heavy chemical industry projects, by the impact of larger manufacturers of subsistence, which will lead to inflation expectations cropped up again. Currently living materials prices, seasonally adjusted chain trend annualized rate in the historical high, once the above judgments are set up, the price rebounded a lot of pressure.
Investment Securities Research Institute, also expressed similar views. They believe that the power shortage will limit future policy reversal space.    Accompanied by the arrival of summer, is expected to power cuts will continue to upgrade, do not rule out future price increases to alleviate some of the power supply pressure. With the economic decline, future policy to hedge the space, such as the protection of housing to accelerate the release of the reserve until the investment projects are closely associated with high energy-intensive industries, which could further intensify the power supply and demand. It is expected that a long time, due to the existence of the power bottleneck in the backdrop of economic downturn, and the limited space of policy reversal.
    "Therefore, we determine electricity shortage impact on the capital market will be reversed," Societe Generale Securities R & D Center, said Zhang Yidong, "Recently a lot of people respected the electricity shortage to benefit from the logic of the concept of cyclical stocks have a big misunderstanding, underestimate the electricity shortage downstream impact of economic growth and social needs may be the slowest in June and July, the market for the second quarter, the rate of economic growth and corporate earnings forecasts will have come down. "
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